
Currency Wars
James Rickards
What's inside?
Explore the global economic battlefield of currency manipulation and its potential to trigger a financial crisis. Learn about the strategies and consequences of this unseen war.
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Key points
01The Pentagon's Secret Financial Wargame
Have you ever wondered how top military officials prepare for the unseen threats of the modern world? The story of global currency manipulation does not begin in a traditional bank vault or a sleepy university economics department; it begins in a highly classified, windowless room inside the Applied Physics Laboratory outside of Washington, D.C. In 2009, the Pentagon invited financial expert James Rickards to participate in a first-of-its-kind, top-secret financial wargame. The military recognized a terrifying new reality: national security is no longer just about protecting borders from physical invasion. True national security is inextricably linked to economic security. If a foreign adversary can systematically destroy your nation's currency, they can completely paralyze your economy without ever having to fire a single bullet. Let that concept sink in for a moment. Why would a hostile nation spend trillions of dollars building aircraft carriers and missile defense systems if they could simply launch a coordinated attack on the global value of the United States dollar? During the wargame, participants were divided into different teams representing global powers like the United States, Russia, China, and various European nations. The scenario they played out was chillingly realistic. Team Russia and Team China decided to quietly pool their massive gold reserves and launch a brand-new, gold-backed currency designed specifically to immediately undermine the dominance of the US dollar. As the wargame progressed, the military officers and intelligence analysts in the room watched in absolute shock as the simulated financial markets collapsed. They quickly realized that the United States had massive blind spots when it came to financial warfare. The traditional military mindset is built on kinetic warfare—bombs, bullets, and physical destruction. But financial warfare is entirely asymmetric. It is stealthy, it is fought with keyboards and algorithms, and the damage it inflicts is absolute. If a country’s currency collapses, supply chains instantly freeze, grocery store shelves go totally empty, gas stations run dry, and civil unrest erupts in the streets within a matter of days. The military brass learned a harsh lesson that day: financial weapons of mass destruction are real, and the United States was wildly unprepared for a full-scale currency war. But what exactly is a currency war? To understand this, we need to strip away the complex Wall Street jargon and look at it through a simple, everyday lens. A currency war is essentially a global policy of competitive devaluation. It happens when a country deliberately takes actions to cheapen the value of its own money relative to the money of other nations. Think about two rival town bakeries trying to win over the same customers. If Bakery A suddenly cuts the price of its bread by half, everybody is going to flock there to buy their daily loaves. Bakery B will start losing all its business and will be forced to cut its prices too, just to survive. In the global economy, countries do the exact same thing, but instead of cutting the price of bread, they cut the value of their national currency. When a country devalues its money, its exported goods suddenly become much cheaper for foreigners to buy. This temporarily boosts the devaluing country's manufacturing sector and creates jobs at home. However, there is a massive, incredibly destructive catch. The world economy is a completely closed system. If one country deliberately devalues its currency to boost its own exports, it is quite literally stealing that economic growth and those jobs directly from its trading partners. It is a classic "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. You are trying to solve your own domestic economic problems by pushing them onto the backs of your global neighbors. Naturally, the victimized countries do not just sit back and take the abuse. They retaliate. They devalue their own currencies in response. What starts as a clever trick to boost exports quickly spirals into a vicious, global race to the bottom. Everyone aggressively prints more money, everyone slashes interest rates, and the result is massive global inflation. While the politicians and central bankers play this high-stakes game of financial chess, it is the everyday citizens who suffer the most. When your country's currency is devalued, everything you import—from the fuel you put in your car to the electronics in your home to the food on your table—becomes drastically more expensive. Your life savings, sitting quietly in a bank account, slowly evaporate in purchasing power. The Pentagon wargame proved that currency wars are not just theoretical academic debates; they are active, ongoing conflicts that have the power to reshape the entire global power structure. To truly understand the sheer danger we are facing today, Rickards argues that we must look back at the past. Currency wars are not a new phenomenon. In fact, the world has fought two massive, destructive currency wars over the last century, and both of them ended in absolute catastrophe. We are currently deeply entrenched in Currency War III, and understanding how the first two wars played out is the only way to predict how the current conflict is going to end.
02Currency War I: The Golden Era Destroyed
To grasp the sheer magnitude of the financial destruction caused by currency wars, we have to travel back in time to the period between 1921 and 1936. This era marks the timeline of Currency War I, a devastating global economic conflict that tore the world apart and ultimately paved the way for the horrors of the Second World War. Before this chaos erupted, the global financial system operated under what was known as the classical gold standard. This system was elegantly simple, highly effective, and fundamentally honest. Under the classical gold standard, a nation's paper money was not just a piece of paper backed by empty government promises; it was a physical receipt for a specific weight of actual gold held in a vault. This meant that a government could not magically print infinite amounts of money to fund endless wars or massive social programs. Their money supply was strictly limited by the amount of physical gold they possessed. If a country acted recklessly and imported far more goods than it exported, it had to physically ship its gold to other countries to settle the trade deficit. As its gold reserves shrank, its domestic money supply shrank too. This caused domestic prices to drop, making its goods cheaper and more attractive on the global market, which naturally boosted exports and brought the gold flowing back. It was a beautiful, self-correcting global thermostat that kept inflation practically non-existent and forced governments to be fiscally responsible. But then came the catastrophic explosion of World War I in 1914. The warring nations of Europe desperately needed to build tanks, manufacture millions of artillery shells, and feed massive armies. They simply did not have enough gold to pay for this unprecedented level of carnage. So, what did they do? They suspended the gold standard and fired up the printing presses. They printed massive mountains of unprotected, unbacked paper money to fund the war effort. When the guns finally fell silent in 1918, the global financial landscape was completely unrecognizable. Europe was buried under an avalanche of debt, and the old, elegant gold standard was completely smashed. What followed was a desperate, chaotic scramble to rebuild shattered economies, setting the stage for the first great currency war. The most extreme and tragic example of this financial mismanagement occurred in Weimar Germany in the early 1920s. Crushed by massive war reparation debts demanded by the victorious Allies, the German government made the fatal decision to simply print paper money to pay its bills. At first, it seemed like a harmless, easy fix. But soon, the supply of German marks flooded the economy, and the value of the currency began to plummet. Small price increases rapidly snowballed into hyperinflation. The stories from Weimar Germany are almost too terrifying to believe. People literally had to take wheelbarrows overflowing with stacks of cash just to buy a single loaf of bread. A cup of coffee would double in price in the time it took you to drink it. Workers demanded to be paid twice a day so they could sprint to the markets on their lunch breaks to buy groceries before prices skyrocketed again by the evening. German citizens began burning stacks of their own national currency in their fireplaces because the paper money was actually cheaper than buying firewood. The life savings of the entire German middle class were utterly wiped out in a matter of months. This complete destruction of wealth created a deeply angry, desperate population, directly setting the stage for the rise of radical political extremism. While Germany burned its currency to the ground, the victorious nations of France and the United Kingdom made their own disastrous blunders. In 1925, Winston Churchill, serving as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, made a prideful and historically terrible decision. He decided to return the British pound to the gold standard, but he insisted on doing it at the old, pre-war exchange rate. He wanted the world to see that the British Empire was still as powerful as ever. However, because Britain had printed so much money during the war, the pound was no longer worth its pre-war value. By forcing the currency to an artificially high value, Churchill made British exports incredibly expensive for the rest of the world. British factories lost their customers, massive unemployment swept across the country, and severe economic depression set in long before the infamous stock market crash of 1929. France, watching Britain's agonizing struggle, decided to take the completely opposite approach. In 1928, France returned to the gold standard, but they deliberately pegged the French franc at a drastically undervalued price. This was a classic currency war maneuver. By artificially cheapening the franc, French goods became incredibly cheap on the global market. France began exporting massively, and because the world was functioning on a gold standard again, physical gold began flooding out of Britain and the United States and pouring directly into the vaults of Paris. France was effectively stealing economic growth from its neighbors. The United States, terrified of losing its own gold reserves to France, decided to hoard its wealth. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates painfully high to attract capital, which choked off lending and business investment inside America. This toxic combination of Britain's overvalued currency, France's deliberate devaluation, and America's gold hoarding completely paralyzed global trade. When the stock market finally crashed in 1929, the fragile, manipulated global economy completely shattered, plunging the world into the Great Depression. Instead of cooperating to fix the crisis, nations doubled down on their selfish policies. They engaged in aggressive, retaliatory currency devaluations and slapped massive tariffs on imported goods, essentially walling off their economies from the rest of the world. Global trade collapsed by over sixty percent. Poverty, hunger, and joblessness swept across the globe. Currency War I proved definitively that when nations use their money as a weapon to steal from their neighbors, there are no winners. The entire system collapses inward, destroying wealth on a global scale and breeding the kind of deep economic misery that ultimately leads to physical, kinetic war.

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03Currency War II: The Death of Bretton Woods
04Currency War III: The Modern Race Downward
05Central Banks and the Illusion of Total Control
06Four Frightening Scenarios for Our Financial Future
07Conclusion
About James Rickards
James Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and author. He is known for his expertise in global financial markets and has advised the US Department of Defense and the CIA on international economics. Rickards has written several best-selling books on financial threats and future scenarios.