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Hit Makers

Derek Thompson

Duration52 min
Key Points8 Key Points
Rating4.4 Rate

What's inside?

Explore the intriguing science behind trends and popularity, and learn how to capture attention in a world filled with distractions.

You'll learn

Learn1. Why do some things get popular?
Learn2. Predicting trends with data
Learn3. How distribution makes a hit
Learn4. Popularity and cultural context
Learn5. The secret of viral content
Learn6. Grabbing attention in a busy world.

Key points

01Uncovering The Hidden Laws Of Popularity

There is a deeply romantic notion embedded in our society about how success works, especially when it comes to creative endeavors. We love to believe in the myth of the pure meritocracy, the idea that the best song, the most beautifully written book, or the most innovative product will naturally rise to the top through its sheer inherent quality. We are captivated by the story of the solitary genius working in a garage whose brilliant creation organically captures the hearts and minds of the masses. However, as we peel back the layers of history and examine the actual mechanics of cultural phenomenons, a much more complicated and fascinating reality emerges. Quality is absolutely important, but it is rarely the deciding factor in what becomes a massive hit. Instead, the secret engine behind almost every sensation is the power of distribution and exposure. To truly understand how hits are made, we have to stop looking exclusively at the product itself and start looking at the hidden networks that deliver that product to the world. Let us step back into the vibrant, chaotic world of nineteenth-century Paris to examine one of the most celebrated movements in art history: Impressionism. Today, the names Claude Monet, Pierre-Auguste Renoir, and Edgar Degas are synonymous with artistic genius. Their paintings draw millions of visitors to museums worldwide and sell for astronomical sums. It is incredibly easy to assume that their breathtaking talent was simply undeniable and that the world naturally recognized their greatness. But the historical reality is entirely different. During their prime working years, the Impressionists were largely considered radical outcasts. The French art world was fiercely controlled by the Salon de Paris, a highly conservative and rigid institution that dictated what was considered "good" art. The Salon favored grand historical scenes and precise, realistic portraits, completely rejecting the blurry, light-filled, everyday scenes painted by the Impressionists. These now-legendary artists struggled deeply, facing constant rejection, financial ruin, and public mockery. Their eventual ascension to the pinnacle of the art world was not a sudden global awakening to their quality, but rather the result of a highly specific and somewhat aggressive distribution strategy orchestrated by a man named Gustave Caillebotte. Gustave Caillebotte was a painter himself, but more importantly, he was an incredibly wealthy man who deeply believed in the Impressionist movement. He used his vast fortune to quietly buy up the works of his struggling friends, amassing a massive private collection of paintings by Monet, Renoir, Pissarro, and others. When Caillebotte died prematurely in 1894, his will contained a highly controversial and explosive stipulation. He bequeathed his entire collection to the French government, but with strict, non-negotiable conditions: the paintings had to be displayed in the prestigious Luxembourg Palace and eventually the Louvre, the highest temples of French art. The art establishment was absolutely furious. The government initially tried to reject the gift, viewing it as an insult to the classical traditions they protected. However, after years of intense legal battles, public debate, and negotiations spearheaded by Renoir, the state finally relented and accepted a portion of the collection. This forced inclusion into the state's official museums changed everything. Suddenly, the Impressionists were no longer fringe rebels; they were hanging on the walls of the most legitimate artistic institutions in the world. Visitors who came to see traditional art were repeatedly exposed to the works of Monet and Degas. Over time, this constant, institutionalized exposure fundamentally altered the public's perception. The paintings did not physically change, but the network through which they were distributed underwent a massive transformation. Because they were seen in the context of a prestigious museum, they were eventually accepted as masterpieces. Caillebotte acted as a super-node, a massive distribution channel that forced the art into the public eye. Without his strategic and wealthy intervention, it is entirely possible that the Impressionists would have remained a minor footnote in the history of French art. We can see this exact same dynamic play out in the history of modern pop music. Consider the legendary song "Rock Around the Clock" by Bill Haley and His Comets. Today, it is widely recognized as the anthem that birthed the rock and roll revolution, a song that supposedly exploded onto the scene and changed the world overnight. Yet, when the song was originally released in the spring of 1954, it was a profound commercial failure. It barely made a ripple on the charts and was quickly forgotten by the record label and the public. It remained an obscure, failed track for over a year. So, what magically transformed this flop into a global sensation? The answer lies entirely in a change of distribution. A young boy named Peter Ford, the son of the prominent Hollywood actor Glenn Ford, happened to own a copy of the record. When his father was cast in a controversial new movie called Blackboard Jungle, a film about rebellious, unruly high school students, the director Richard Brooks was desperately searching for a song that captured the chaotic energy of the youth culture. He heard "Rock Around the Clock" from Peter's record collection and decided to play it during the opening credits of the film. When Blackboard Jungle premiered in 1955, it became a massive cultural flashpoint. Teenagers flocked to the theaters, and when that driving, energetic beat blasted through the massive cinematic sound systems, audiences literally danced in the aisles. The song became an unstoppable juggernaut, spending weeks at the number one spot on the charts and defining an entire generation. The crucial lesson here is that the audio waves of "Rock Around the Clock" did not spontaneously improve between 1954 and 1955. Bill Haley did not go back into the studio and record a better version. The inherent quality of the song was exactly the same when it failed as it was when it succeeded. The only variable that changed was the delivery mechanism. It was lifted from the weak, fragmented distribution network of a minor record release and suddenly plugged into the incredibly powerful, massive distribution network of a major Hollywood blockbuster. It was the placement, the context, and the sheer volume of exposure that manufactured the hit. Recognizing this separation between the creation of a product and the distribution of a product is the very first step in demystifying the culture we consume. We must always ask ourselves not just why something is good, but how it managed to get in front of our eyes and ears in the first place.

02Why We Secretly Crave The Familiar

If distribution is the vehicle that carries a hit into the world, human psychology is the fuel that powers our reaction to it. To understand why certain songs, movies, or ideas resonate so deeply with millions of people, we have to look inward and examine the complex, often contradictory machinery of the human brain. We are constantly surrounded by a cultural narrative that insists we are desperate for the new, the groundbreaking, and the completely original. We praise the avant-garde, we celebrate disruptors, and we declare that we are exhausted by the same old formulas. Yet, when we analyze actual consumer behavior, box office numbers, and streaming data, a remarkably different truth emerges. Despite our vocal demands for novelty, our subconscious brains overwhelmingly prefer things that are deeply, comfortably familiar. We are biologically wired to gravitate toward the things we already know, a phenomenon that psychologists have studied and documented for decades. This fundamental quirk of human nature is best explained by the mere exposure effect, a psychological principle famously researched by the brilliant scholar Robert Zajonc in the late nineteen-sixties. Zajonc was fascinated by the way in which simple repetition could influence human preference without any conscious reasoning involved. To test his theories, he designed a series of elegantly simple but profoundly revealing experiments. In one of his most famous studies, he placed a series of advertisements in the student newspaper of the University of Michigan. However, these were not ordinary advertisements selling products; they were simply boxes containing various Turkish-sounding nonsense words, such as "kadirga" or "saricik." Some of these words were printed in the newspaper only once over the course of the experiment, while others were printed dozens of times, appearing in issue after issue. Zajonc offered no explanation to the students about what these words meant or why they were in the paper. After several weeks, he sent questionnaires to the student body, presenting them with the list of words and asking them to rate whether they thought each word meant something positive or negative. The results were completely staggering and formed the bedrock of modern behavioral psychology. The students consistently rated the words they had seen more frequently as having a much more positive meaning than the words they had seen rarely or never. They had no logical reason to prefer "kadirga" over "saricik," but the sheer, unconscious repetition of the visual pattern had created a sense of safety, familiarity, and ultimately, affection. The brain essentially operates on a simple heuristic: if I have seen this before and it did not hurt me, it must be good. To understand why the mere exposure effect is so powerful, we must understand that the human brain is fundamentally a prediction machine. As we navigate the world, our minds are constantly working fractions of a second ahead, trying to anticipate what we are going to see, hear, or experience next. When we encounter something completely new and chaotic, our brains have to work incredibly hard to process the unfamiliar information. This cognitive strain is exhausting and often triggers a mild sense of anxiety or discomfort. However, when we encounter something familiar, our brains can easily predict the pattern. When our predictions are proven correct, the brain rewards us with a tiny, pleasurable hit of dopamine. Psychologists call this "processing fluency." We love the feeling of fluency; we love the feeling of easily understanding and anticipating our environment. This biological desire for fluency explains the enduring power of the lullaby, one of the oldest forms of human musical expression. Consider the famous Brahms' Lullaby, a melody recognized by almost everyone on the planet. Why do babies respond so well to this specific type of music? It is not because they have an innate appreciation for nineteenth-century German classical composition. It is because a lullaby is fundamentally built on extreme repetition. The melody loops gently, providing a highly predictable, easily processed auditory environment. The baby's developing brain does not have to struggle to decode complex, chaotic sounds; it can simply relax into the comforting, predictable pattern. This desire for musical fluency does not disappear when we grow up. The structure of the modern pop music industry is entirely built upon this exact same principle. A hit song is essentially an adult lullaby. It relies on a recognizable verse-chorus-verse structure, repetitive lyrical hooks, and familiar chord progressions. When we hear a pop song on the radio for the first time, we might initially dismiss it. But as the radio station plays it over and over again, the mere exposure effect takes hold. Our brains learn the pattern, the cognitive fluency increases, and suddenly, we find ourselves tapping our feet and singing along to a song we claimed to hate just a week prior. However, our relationship with the familiar is not entirely simple. If we only ever experienced the exact same things over and over again, we would eventually become numb and deeply bored. This creates a fascinating tension within the human psyche. We are torn between two powerful, opposing forces: neophilia, which is a deep curiosity and love for new things, and neophobia, which is a deep-seated fear and rejection of the unknown. We want the thrill of a new experience, but we want the safety of a familiar context. The holy grail of cultural production, therefore, is finding the exact intersection between these two forces. It is the delicate art of providing just enough novelty to capture our attention, while providing enough familiarity to make us feel safe and comfortable. There is perhaps no better modern example of managing this delicate balance than the story of Spotify's Discover Weekly feature. When the streaming giant first set out to create an algorithm that would recommend new music to its users, they built a highly sophisticated system designed to serve up completely fresh, unheard tracks based on the user's general taste profile. The engineering team was incredibly proud of their purely new discovery engine. However, when they rolled it out for initial testing, the engagement metrics were disappointingly low. Users were skipping the tracks and abandoning the playlist. Then, a massive software bug accidentally infiltrated the system. Due to this error, the algorithm began mixing in songs that the users had already heard and saved in the past, blending the familiar old tracks with the brand new recommendations. The engineers rushed to fix the bug, assuming it had ruined the experiment. But before they could deploy the patch, they looked at the user data. The engagement had absolutely skyrocketed. Users were suddenly listening to the entire playlist, saving the new songs, and raving about the feature. The bug had accidentally solved the psychological puzzle. When users were presented with a wall of completely new music, their neophobia kicked in; it was too much cognitive work, too much unfamiliarity. But when the new songs were sandwiched between familiar, beloved tracks, the users felt safe. The familiar songs acted as anchors, providing the necessary processing fluency that allowed the users to lower their defenses and embrace the novel recommendations. Spotify realized that the secret to introducing the new was to wrap it tightly in the old. People do not actually want completely new things; they simply want the things they already love, presented to them in a slightly new way.

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03The MAYA Principle In Action

04How To Build A Viral Network

05The Myth Of The Viral Epidemic

06The Hidden Economics Of Cultural Blockbusters

07Conclusion

About Derek Thompson

Derek Thompson is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about economics and media. He's a news analyst with NPR and frequently appears on television. Thompson is the author of "Hit Makers," and has been named to Forbes and Inc Magazine's "30 Under 30" lists.

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